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02/20/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - From one coast to the other the NASCAR caravan pulls into the Los Angeles area for week No.2 of 36. For those that had a tough time in the restrictor-plate race at Daytona its back to un- restricted horsepower and a chance to rebound. In the Busch Series the question is can anyone derail the "Harvick Express?" In the truck series it's all about trying to stop Toyota from becoming a "dynasty."
NASCAR
Nextel Cup
Auto Club 500 - California Speedway - Fontana, CA
Though Kevin Harvick put his name on the trophy as the 2007 Daytona 500 winner, the race showed why NASCAR is so popular. As many as a 10 drivers were flirting with the win throughout the race.
David Gilliland took the pole position and kept the lead for the first 18 laps proving his Robert Yates Racing team has the speed to compete with the best. Then Kurt Busch took over displaying for everyone that Penske Racing was a force to be reckoned with in 2007.
The third driver to lead the race was Tony Stewart who looks ready to have a great season despite his 43rd-place result in Daytona. The two-time Nextel Cup Series champion was dominant from laps 49-80 until he had a problem on pit road some of which was not his fault. Stewart rebounded from the problem and on lap 150 assumed the lead for the second time, but a slight bobble caused him to collide with Kurt Busch ending both drivers day.
Kyle Busch inherited the lead at this point, but it was not a fluke. Unlike his teammates Jeff Gordon and defending Daytona 500 winner Jimmie Johnson who were nowhere on Sunday, Busch had been sitting in the top-10 for almost the entire event.
But don't think for even a single minute that either of the two Hendrick Motorsports superstars won't be competing in this year's "Chase for the Nextel Cup." In spite of an ill-handling car, Gordon recorded a 10th-place finish while Johnson led all drivers last year with 24-top-10s.
Matt Kenseth was also a player in the "500" sitting fourth overall when Kyle Busch collided with him on the final lap. The No.17 Roush Racing Ford should be a threat to win most weeks and will probably lead a number of Roush teammates back into the "Chase." They has five of 10 "Chase" drivers in 2005, but stumbled last year getting just two drivers in the "playoffs" (Kenseth, Mark Martin).
Speaking of Martin, the veteran was finally within sight of his first Daytona 500 victory in 23 tries when a "freight train" (Harvick) caught him at the finish line. Martin, driving for Ginn Racing in 2007 (formerly known as MBV/MB2 Motorsports), will be competitive in every race he drives this season because he has Hendrick engines and he's a smart racer.
Harvick along with teammates Jeff Burton (finished third) and Clint Bowyer (finished 18th while upside down and on fire) can also win any race they are in.
That was 10 drivers who could have won last week and could win this week and the list didn't include: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne (six wins in 2006), 2006 Rookie-of-the-Year Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman or Bobby Labonte.
The list also didn't include Formula One star Juan Montoya, who probably won't win in 2007, but should be fun to watch particularly when the series arrives at the road courses in Infineon and Watkins Glen.
Last year's race in California saw Kenseth edge Johnson by 0.338 seconds. Edwards, Kahne and Burton made up the top-five. The No.17 Roush Ford's win was the capper for owner Jack Roush who won all three events in 2006 - Martin in a truck and Biffle in the Busch Series).
With 55 laps to go, Biffle had a huge margin over the field. He was on a record-setting pace and just 15 cars could even stay on the lead lap with him. But a "debris" caution flag on lap 198 made short work of Biffle's safety margin.
When the green flag dropped, Biffle made quick work of second-place Kenseth and with 37 laps remaining his lead was 3.023 seconds. No one was faster than Biffle, but a couple of teams were preparing to go the final 50 laps without stopping. That gamble appeared to be the only way to catch the No.16 National Guard Ford.
Then Stewart's engine let go bringing out a caution flag.
All the leaders except Gordon came down pit road and took four tires. Gordon's crew gave him two right-side tires to get him the lead with 32 laps to go. Kenseth was second quickest out and Biffle was third. It took Kenseth just three-quarters of a lap to slip underneath Gordon for the lead, just moments before Stanton Barrett spun his No.95 Chevrolet. It was a short caution and the drivers quickly saw the green flag.
Biffle took second from Gordon with 26 laps to go and took aim on Kenseth. But then a puff of smoke from Biffle's engine was the first sign of an engine problem and he radioed that his engine lost a cylinder.
When Kenseth took the white flag, signifying one lap to go, his lead was six lengths on Johnson and he cruised to the finish line.
After the wild and controversial finish in the Daytona 500 can Nextel Cup keep the momentum going this week in California? Stay tuned.
Busch
Stater Bros. 300 - California Speedway - Fontana, CA
Though Kevin Harvick claims not to be running a full Busch Series schedule in 2007, he may not need to. In 2006 Harvick won the championship by 824 points over Carl Edwards. He clinched the series title on October 13th with four races still remaining on the schedule, so if he keeps up last year's pace he could still successfully defend his crown.
And based on last week's Orbitz 300, that is exactly what the No.21 Chevrolet is going to do.
Harvick won the 2007 Busch Series opener beating Dave Blaney by 0.460 seconds for the 27th win of his career. Harvick and teammate Clint Bowyer led 43 of 120 laps finishing first and fourth, respectively.
Off the Daytona performance there is reason to think that Harvick can duplicate his 2006 effort when he won nine times and posted a mind-boggling 32 top-10s in 35 events.
In last year's Stater Bros. 300 Harvick finished eighth, well behind winner Greg Biffle. Biffle cruised to a 2.255-second win over Ryan Newman and loves the two-mile California Speedway. It was a race in which the top-11 finishers were all Nextel Cup regulars, but Biffle was easily the best.
Biffle was the leader after 46 laps, but Edwards rebounded from an early handling problem to make a run at his Roush Racing teammate. He passed him on lap 47, but Biffle returned the favor one lap later.
At the mid-point of the race a new challenger, Jeff Burton, had not only joined Edwards, Biffle and Newman at the top, but passed all of them for his first lead of the race.
A caution flag on lap 133 bunched up the field for a final run to the checkered flag. Edwards pitted for new tires from the lead, but the rest of the leaders stayed out on the track leaving the No.60 Ford in 10th place on the restart.
The green flag re-appeared on lap 139. Could Edwards come from the back to win or did he make the wrong choice?
It looked encouraging for Edwards right after the restart. He passed three lead cars on the first half lap. But as he charged towards the top it got harder and harder to make the pass.
Biffle was setting a fast pace after passing Burton and Newman was about one second back. Edwards was over two seconds back. The No.60 Ford continued to move up the charts, fifth on lap 143 and fourth on lap 144.
Meanwhile, Biffle was expanding his margin over Newman. His lead was 1.093 seconds with nine laps to go and 1.547 seconds with five remaining. Edwards passed one more car, Burton, for third place, but that was as far as he could go.
Biffle took the checkered flag unchallenged. In both the Cup and Busch Series combined at Fontana, Biffle has collected four wins in the last three years.
Craftsman
San Bernardino County 200 - California Speedway - Fontana, CA
The 2007 Craftsman Truck Series began in the same way that the 2006 series ended - with Toyota power dominating.
The top-three finishers in last year's standings were all Toyota-powered cars driven by series champion Todd Bodine, runner-up Johnny Benson and third-place David Reutimann.
In the Chevy Silverado HD 250 at Daytona, Jack Sprague grabbed the win in his No.60 Toyota with second place going to Benson in another Toyota. Sprague (high) and Benson (low) charged around leader Travis Kvapil in the final 200 yards for the win.
"This is the most awesome win that I've ever been able to accomplish," said Sprague who has 28 series victories to compare it with.
Toyota took four of the top-five slots with only Kvapil's No.6 Roush Ford (finishing third) preventing a four-car sweep by Toyota.
Series champion Bodine began the defense of his title with a fifth-place finish.
"The competition level in the Truck Series is incredible," said Bodine on his team's website. "This is probably going to be the best year of truck racing yet.
"I'm leaving Daytona as confident as ever in our Daytona/Talladega program, and I'm looking forward to seeing what we've got for the rest of the races on our schedule. We should be in very good shape."
Now its on the California where Mark Martin is the defending champion although he will not be driving for the team or in the car that he won last year's race. Martin will be in the No.21 Ford truck while Kvapil will again have Roush power and expertise behind him in the No.6 Ford.
In last year's race, Martin had to beat five out five strong Toyotas and did just that to edge Bodine by 0.131 second for the win.
Qualifying is set for Friday afternoon and the race will be run Friday night at 9 p.m. (et).
<< United, Dynamo gear up for Champions Cup matches
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While most Major League Soccer teams are
slowly building their fitness and preparing for the upcoming season - which
kicks off April 7 - two clubs are under considerably more pressure.
The Houston Dy
<< Pennsylvania Derby purse increased to $1 million
Bensalem, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Park Racetrack has announced that
its premier event, the Pennsylvania Derby, will now have a purse of $1
million. The announcement was made in a press release on Tuesday.
"There's somethi
<< Leopold out four weeks for Avs
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Avalanche defenseman Jordan Leopold
will be sidelined approximately four weeks with a fractured wrist.
Leopold, who will undergo surgery, suffered the injury during the third period
of Colorado's 7-
<< Celtics send Ray to D-League
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics assigned rookie guard
Allan Ray to their NBA Development League affiliate in Austin.
Ray is the team's first assignment to the NBA Development League this season
and the 19th NBA pla
Kings get chance to be spoilers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Los Angeles Kings are all but out of this year's
playoff race, they will get an opportunity to put a damper on some other
team's chances as well.
This past weekend, the Kings managed to split a home-and-home seri
Forsberg's impact on Predators not reflected in his stats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In two games as a member of the Nashville Predators, Peter
Forsberg has yet to record a point. But judging by the team's performance
Monday against the Phoenix Coyotes, there's little to reason for Music City
fans to panic.
Bears promote Babich to defensive coordinator >>
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears named Bob Babich the
team's defensive coordinator on Tuesday, one day after announcing that Ron
Rivera would no longer own that title.
Babich has been an assistant coach in Ch
Robredo, Ljubicic win first-rounders in Rotterdam >>
Rotterdam, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-seeded Spaniard Tommy
Robredo and third-seeded Croat Ivan Ljubicic were among Tuesday's first-round
winners at the $1 million ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament.
The world No. 7 Robre
Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
To visit this online sports book got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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