Red-hot Mariners continue series with Blue Jays

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Seattle Mariners continue their quest for the top spot in the American League West as they contend with the Toronto Blue Jays in the second of a three-game set from the Rogers Centre.

On Friday Adrian Beltre connected on a two-run home run for the visitors as the Mariners captured a 4-2 win, marking the team's eighth in the last 11 outings. With the victory, and a loss by the Angels, Seattle pulled to within a game of first place in the division.

Jose Guillen and Raul Ibanez each drove in a run for the Mariners, while J.J. Putz locked up the triumph with his 29th save of the campaign, his 31st straight dating back to last season. Putz, who put Miguel Batista in the win column for the 10th time this season, ran his scoreless innings streak to 22 in the process as well.

Batista permitted just two runs on five hits and struck out six over 5 2/3 innings of work, while Toronto starter Jesse Litsch managed to make it through only 4 1/3 innings, giving up four runs on five hits and walking four.

Alex Rios accounted for three hits for the Blue Jays and scored one of the team's two runs on the night, with Frank Thomas coming up with the other.

Now in his ninth season in the majors, Jeff Weaver tries to dig himself out of a huge hole as he takes the mound for the Mariners this afternoon in Toronto.

Weaver has won just twice in 2007, leaving him 20 games under .500 (88-108) for his career as he prepares to face the Blue Jays for the second time this season. The right-hander allowed a total of 10 hits for the fourth time in 2007 on Sunday as the Mariners bowed to Detroit in an 11-7 decision at home. Weaver was tagged for seven earned runs after giving up just seven earned runs in the previous six starts combined.

For his career Weaver has less than impressive stats versus Toronto, posting a 5-9 record with a 5.33 ERA in 16 appearances over the years.

As for the Jays, they are giving the ball to Josh Towers, who hopes to improve upon his 4-1 career mark against Seattle.

A seven-year veteran who broke into the majors with Baltimore, Towers has already doubled his number of wins from a season ago when he finished 2-10. The right-hander enters this contest with a 4-6 mark on the campaign after giving up six runs on nine hits, three of which were home runs, in a loss to the Yankees on Monday in the Bronx.

After playing under .500 against the Blue Jays each of the three previous seasons, Seattle seems to have found the answer in 2007 with four wins in as many chances against the Canadian club.

While Beltre had a big hit for the Mariners in last night's contest, he is still hitting a mere .136 in the last six games for the club. During that span Ichiro Suzuki has a total of seven hits and has scored five times.

Troy Glaus has been pounding the ball for the Jays, a team that is 11 games out of first in the AL East, coming up with three home runs and seven RBI for the club in the last seven outings. With Aaron Hill accounting for 11 hits and five knocked in, the pair have combined for the majority of the team's 17 RBI in the last week.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.