Nets open homestand against Hornets

Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets open up a five-game homestand this evening when they welcome the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets to the Continental Airlines Arena.

However, the big question for the Nets is how many of those games star guard Jason Kidd will play in.

Kidd, the recent subject of trade rumors, has missed New Jersey's last two games because of a strained lower back that also kept him out of the All-Star Game. He is questionable for tonight's game.

However, New Jersey's rumored attempts to deal Kidd, who is averaging 14.3 points, eight rebounds and 8.7 assists per game, may lead it to keep him out of the lineup again tonight.

The Nets come out of the All-Star break 4 1/2 games behind the Toronto Raptors for the lead in the Atlantic Division. Those same Raptors sent the Nets into the break on a losing note after handing New Jersey a 120-109 loss last Wednesday.

Bostjan Nachbar poured in a career-best 26 points and also grabbed eight rebounds while Eddie House and Marcus Williams chipped 19 points apiece for the Nets, who have lost two in a row. Vince Carter had 17 points, 10 assists and six rebounds in the loss, the sixth in nine games for New Jersey.

Carter did play in the exhibition tilt, and had seven points in the East's 153-132 setback.

New Jersey is 14-13 as the host this year and is currently two games out of a playoff spot. It will also host Sacramento, New York, Washington and Boston on the current stand.

The Nets have had recent success against the Hornets, having won six straight and eight of the last 11 in the series. They have also won three in a row at home.

New Jersey swept a pair of meetings last year with New Orleans, which hasn't captured a victory over the Nets since November of 2003. This is the first meeting between the clubs this year.

The Hornets, though, have been having success against the rest of the NBA. However, they came out of the break on Tuesday and suffered a 104-100 loss to Charlotte, just the club's fourth defeat in its last 13 games.

Despite the setback, New Orleans is just one-half game behind Minnesota for the eighth playoff spot in the West.

Chris Paul scored 20 points and tallied seven assists for the Hornets, while Tyson Chandler finished with 16 points and 20 boards. Desmond Mason added 17 points with six boards, and David West scored 16 points and racked in seven boards.

Paul represented the Hornets in the battle between the NBA's freshman and sophomore stars. The second-year Wake Forest product tallied 16 points with 17 assists and nine steals in the sophomore's 115-114 victory.

Tonight's tilt is the second of back-to-back road games for New Orleans, which has lost three of its last four on the road and is just 8-18 as the visitor. The team returns home on Friday to host Seattle.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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