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07/09/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The word "frenzy" is often used to describe the NHL's free agency period, but sitting here today on July 9th, the word "flop" might be more appropriate in describing the excitement level amongst hockey fans.
In the first two days of free agency there were 52 new contracts handed out, and there have been only seven since.
It would seem that general managers are playing a waiting game, holding their cards close to the vest in order to see how the landscape will look once superstar Ilya Kovalchuk decides on a new home.
After the Russian sniper signs, effectively taking this year's stud off the market, one can expect the deals to start hitting the news wire at more of a brisk pace.
For now, it will be the smaller stories that get some attention, and the Vancouver Canucks are serving up some fodder for the hockey world in that regard.
It was announced earlier in the week that the Canucks would be partnering with Rogers Communications, Canada's largest cable and mobile phone provider, in a sponsorship deal.
By acquiring the naming rights to the team's downtown stadium on Tuesday, the concrete behemoth at 800 Griffiths Way, previously known as General Motors place, will now be Rogers Arena.
Canucks owner Francesco Aquilini and Rogers president and CEO Nadir Mohamed agreed on the 10-year deal that will not only result in the name change, but also some exploration into using the media giant to reach out to Canucks fans.
"We will partner with the Canucks to explore new and revolutionary ways to use wireless technology to engage Vancouver fans any time, any place," said Mohamed, who grew up a Canucks fan in British Columbia.
By the sound of it, some interesting new digital outlets could be developed to enhance the franchise's relationship with its rabid fan base.
The Canucks already have an extremely successful iPhone application on the market, showing how they value the opportunities to connect with people in this digital age. This new partnership is an expansion of that media savvy.
Rogers can add this relationship with the Canucks to their already-impressive resume in pro sports ownership, management and marketing.
The media giant also owns the Toronto Blue Jays franchise and their home turf (Rogers Centre), as well as the naming rights to the ATP pro tennis tour's Canadian pit stop the Rogers Cup.
On the hockey front, the Canucks have made some moves that should contribute to their on-ice success as well.
By signing free agents Dan Hamhuis and Manny Malhotra and trading for the Florida Panthers' Keith Ballard the Canucks have beefed up at both ends of the ice.
Hamhuis, 27, turned down more lucrative offers to play in his home province and will be the lynchpin of the defensive corps, while Ballard, also 27, will join Hamhuis among the top four on the back end and will be an injection of quickness and durability. The move to get Ballard could also allow the Canucks to explore the possibility of moving oft-injured defender Kevin Bieksa for some more scoring punch up front.
With the signing of Malhotra, the Canucks add a gritty third-line center who won more than 60 percent of his draws last season. The face-off specialist will take a leading role on the penalty kill that finished 18th in the league last year.
The Canucks have sent a strong message to the rest of the league, that they believe the window for a Stanley Cup is wide open.
And by partnering with Rogers, it looks like there will be even more ways for Canucks fans to enjoy the ride.
<< Report: Yankees close to acquiring Lee
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees are reportedly close to
acquiring pitcher Cliff Lee from the Seattle Mariners.
According to the New York Post, the Yankees would send prized catching
prospect Jesus Montero to Se
<< Modell: Cleveland fans will 'carry on' post-James
CLEVELAND (AP) -LeBron James' decision to abandon Cleveland is drawing comparisons to Art Modell. But the man who moved the Browns to Baltimore in 1995 says the situations are different.Modell tells Cleveland radio station WTAM that ``you can't equa
<< Mavs lock up C Haywood
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Mavericks reportedly agreed to terms
with center Brendan Haywood on a multi-year contract.
According to multiple reports, the deal is worth $55 million over six years.
The 29-year-old started the 20
<< Clippers add Foye, Gomes
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers have come to terms
on contracts with forward Ryan Gomes and guard Randy Foye.
The Los Angeles Times reports Foye's deal is for two years and more than $8
million. Gomes' deal is
Bruins sign Stuart to one-year deal >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins have signed defenseman Mark
Stuart to a one-year contract.
Financial terms were not disclosed.
Stuart has spent his entire career with the Bruins, who made the Rochester,
Minnesota nat
Record crowd watched Clijsters beat Serena >>
Brussels, Belgium (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The largest crowd to ever watch a tennis
match saw Belgian Kim Clijsters beat Wimbledon champion Serena Williams in an
exhibition bout Thursday in Brussels.
The former world No. 1 Clijsters topped the c
2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Tight Ends >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The collegiate tight end has traditionally
received little-to-no fanfare, except for the truly exceptional in that
category. However, the position remains a quarterback's best friend. Whether it
is serving as
Rays try to extend win streak versus Indians >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays shoot for their seventh straight win
this evening when they continue their four-game set with the Cleveland Indians
at Tropicana Field.
After a miserable June that saw them go just 11-14, the Rays have w
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.
Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.
El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.
MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds.
Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.
New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.
Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''
Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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